A Case of Fallacious Logic

Ad hoc, ergo propter hoc anyone? This just in… Teens who watch more sexually-charged shows more likely to get pregnant. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,446085,00.html

Forgive me if I don’t gasp in awe of this finding. However, the one thing that I couldn’t help but notice was this logical gap in the article and the study that the teens were getting pregnant because of watching the shows. There was no thought process going into the following options that would create this correlation sans causation; basically meaning that the shows and pregnancies could both be caused by other factors, and are not causative in and of themselves.

Okay, speak English, Goober. You guys ready?

1.) A home-environment of loose sexual ideas and morality causes her to get pregnant, and ALSO causes her to watch shows with loose sexual ideology and morality. Note the correlation, but lack of causation, in the sense that they were both caused by the same thing, but either one could be mutually exclusive from the other.
2.) A curiosity about sex that causes her to watch these sitcoms, and also causes her to get pregnant. Again, correlation does not causation make.
3.) Her recent sexual activity causes her to become interested in sexual sitcoms. Note there is causation on this one, but reversed from the conclusions of the folks in the article, in that the sexual activity makes her seek out similar activity in the media. There could be many reasons that this one makes sense. Right or wrong, she feels like a slut, and watching other women put out constantly makes her feel like what she is doing is OK. I mean, if they are doing it on TV…
4.) She lives in a household that doesn’t talk about sex, doesn’t approach the subject, and treats it like a taboo. She has recently started having sex, and is curious to learn more, and so gets her (mis)information from the only source available; television. Therefore, she watches the sitcoms, and gets pregnant because no one ever told her how not to.

I guess my point here is that too many times, a simple correlation is touted as causation. Too many times, causation is established, but it is backwards. Too many times, assumptions get us in trouble, when we create opinions without studying the data fully. None of the above scenarios are exclusive of the actual finding. It is totally possible that girls watch the sitcoms, and that causes them to go out and get pregnant. However, the lack of scientific curiosity in this study, and so many like it, are dangerous.

For instance, as temperatures rose, so did CO2 levels…. Catch my drift?

Goo “balance between abstinence only and FATW education” ber